Most people don't perceive the possibility of a total societal collapse. The thought of such a thing causes immediate and intense cognitive dissidence. A stable, dependable, unmoving society with rules - where the grocery store shelves are always stocked, the tap water always flows, and the lights always turn on - is all we've ever seen in western society (barring the occasional localized power outage or bad storm.) We are conditioned to believe with everything we have that everything will look the same tomorrow, and the next day, and the next - indefinitely. The problem is that, historically, that's just not how this works. Societies, empires, kingdoms rise, thrive, wither, and eventual crumble. There's not a single instance of a society similar to ours (better to call it what it is - an empire) lasting forever. Egypt fell. Rome fell. The British Empire withered away, WW2 helping to put the final nail in the coffin of British superiority over much of the world. None of this is any less impermanent.
What are some of the things that could catalyze our fate? What's most likely? I've compiled a list of the things I think about being prepared for - from the most likely and least consequential on a larger scale to the least likely, but most detrimental on the largest possible scale.
- Devastating and Society Threatening Events:
(*I consider Global Warming/Climate Disaster one of my number one reasons for preparing - see the end of this post for more on that)
!. Financial Collapse:
People don't realize how close we've already come to this eventuality and that we are still teetering on the verge of a "Financial Crisis Part 2." We were literally hours away from everything coming apart completely. We were hours away from an end that would have left grocery stores shelves unstocked - empty. Our nation's system of manufacture, transport, stock was a sliver away from losing the "transport" section of the equation. Most grocery stores carry, at best, a 3 day supply of food (under circumstances of normal demand.) To me, this is one of the MOST likely, large scale scenarios to be ready for. The depression did cause a collapse to a large degree - though we pulled out of it eventually. The Great Recession brought us within a razor's edge of the same if not worse. These both occurred within less than 100 years of each other and the worst part is, we have an even higher likelihood of a repeat of the latter, as all of the conditions and dangers that led to the crisis have only gotten exponentially worse!
2. Massive Cyber Attack:
This one needs almost zero explanation. The fact is the world wide web and the Internet are vulnerable. It's a game of cat and mouse between hackers and cyber security teams everywhere. Eventually the cat will kill the mouse. If the financial sector is successfully targeted, see eventuality number one. If infrastructure controls are targeted we could see blackouts, water disruptions, inventory disruptions, really - just use your imagination - the possibilities of severe disruptions of all kinds is mind boggling. If the attack takes down the entire Internet and www, again - no explanation needed. Money evaporates, panic ensues, society breaks.
3. Kinetic Attack (Hot war, terrorism, etc.)
I'm not sure how likely this scenario might be. It seems to go from highly likely to highly unlikely and back again from year to year to year. I'd say, that fact in and of itself, should be enough of an incentive to consider the possibility to be a real one and to react and prepare appropriately. The consequences of a large scale kinetic war, especially were it to go nuclear, are so extreme that the risk of doing nothing, to me, highly outweigh any benefit. Not to mention (if you can manage living in a "non-target" small town or in the country in a nuclear attack situation) most of your preps will cover most of these scenarios, making this just one more incentive to prepare in the first place.
4. Extreme Social Unrest (Riots, Civil War)
It's happened in the US before. We are in a time of so much political and socioeconomic strife, more so that at any point since the Civil War of the 19th century. All you have to do is read through the arguments online, hear the hatred and anger in the way people react to one another - our state of affairs becomes painfully clear. Our society has become a tinderbox that any unforeseen, wayward spark could easily set off into something terrifying. Civil war does happen. Mob mentality can take over (if anyone remembers the Rodney King verdict in LA and the chaos and bloodshed that followed, you know what's possible.) People are on edge, people are angry, and people are stressed like never before. It may not seem like civil war could ever happen again, but that line of thinking is blind to reality and history. It can and does occur and we are in no way immune to it.
5. Food Shortages
As I mentioned before, most grocery store shelves keep about three days of inventory. That three days is based on normal demand levels. What if prices were to soar due to a drought or flood destroying our grain supply? What about when the next financial crisis ACTUALLY DOES stop the food trucks from running and the shelves empty? What if the electricity goes out for an extended period and the stores have to close after being cleared out of non-perishables? To me, our reliance on a system that only ensures we are fed, at best, for 3 days - is the most precarious bet anyone could ever make on their own sustenance. Those shelves can be emptied and stay that way. What happens when they're not refilled?
6. Water Shortages
This isn't only likely, it's already happening. Our water tables are becoming highly stressed. California routinely experiences restrictions on water usage due to the strained water supply. We are depleting the water in our aquifers faster than it can be replaced. The scariest part is that nobody knows how much water is contained in those aquifers. To put what we've already used in perspective, it's estimated that up to 40% of the sea level rise we've already experienced has stemmed from the water we've used being dumping back into the sea. I can't even imagine what our society will look like when the stress on the aquifers begins to directly impact our society on a mortal level. Here's a link to the subject: https://www.circleofblue.org/2015/world/groundwater-depletion-stresses-majority-of-worlds-largest-aquifers/
7. Natural Disaster (A bad year)
Natural Disasters aren't only a given at this point, they've become so much more frequent, so much more extreme and damaging to our populations and infrastructures, places are no longer able to recover the way they used to (Puerto Rico is a truly unbearable example.) A bad year with a few too many and too damaging wildfires, a few too many and too severe hurricanes, a few too many and too severe floods, throw an earthquake in a major city on top for posterity. A really bad year could easily result in a breakdown. The stress on our population, our food supply, our fuel supply, our transportation systems, our financial systems, these things could easily be stressed too far. It's completely feasible that, especially if the exponential nature of the size and scope of recent disasters increasing is any indicator, the strain can and will eventually break us, assuming something else doesn't do it first.
8. EMP or Solar Flare
This one seems a little less likely to me, though still totally possible. Just see the Carrington Flare of 1859 https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/03/110302-solar-flares-sun-storms-earth-danger-carrington-event-science/. If that were to happen today, nobody can really say just how bad it would be. I can venture to guess, anything that takes out a large portion or all of the power grid for the unforeseeable future, would be something I would want to be prepared to deal with. People would panic, riot, and if it went on for any real length of time (longer than a week or two) countless people would perish. A deliberate EMP, which is a real possibility, would simply be an intentional event with the same result. So maybe the probability is somewhat low (the chances of a "Carrington" sized event in any given year is 1 in 100), that's still a pretty high probability when you add up the years and consider how lucky we've been so far in the age of power, Internet, and satellite.
9. Pandemic
Ugh, this one scares me,to be ! This one is so incredibly likely to me considering global warming increasing the active season and range of disease carrying insects, mass migration due to social unrest and economic disparity, melting ice caps releasing god knows what into the world that our immune systems have zero immunity to, and mass transit to help move all our microscopic little stowaways from one side of the earth to the other. We're pumping our meats full of antibiotics that are supercharging the immunity of disease causing bacteria. We're spraying pesticides on our crops that are supercharging fungi. We're over prescribing medications that are literally teaching diseases how to beat the system and, ultimately, us. The right mutation of the right virus, bacteria, fungus, or parasite at the right time and boom - We have an airborne, jet-setting, super-contagion that takes out a huge chunk of the world and returns society, globally, back to the dark ages. I've got no doubt that this is something we'll soon contend with, though I dread the nightmare of it when it comes.
10. Eruption of a Super Volcano
It could happen, it could definitely happen. I put this lower on the list as the likelihood is much more remote than most of the above possibilities. However, it's still a real possibility. If you're far enough away from the eruption, life will go on - civilization as we know it, likely will not. Most of your preps will serve you well if you can find a way to grow food in, what will likely be, much cooler conditions for years to come. Again, this is a less likely scenario - but my point in all this isn't the smaller likelihood of any one possibility, it's the collectively large possibility of at least one of those scenarios occurring at any given time!
11. Asteroid/Comet/Gama Ray Burst/Etc.
Okay, these seem much, much, much less likely to me - as well as almost certainly unsurvivable. But, you never know. You never know what could happen or what you might be able to survive, so I've included it. And, hey, maybe it's a small asteroid and doesn't cause utter and complete antihalation of all life on the planet. If you happened to have the right bunker in the right place, along with a handful of others who've burrowed far enough underground with their rations, and you manage to continue the human race on into the future, well - Thank you for your contribution - You'll likely be included a religious text when civilization is restored one fine day! Like I said earlier, if you have prepared for and survived a disaster, you're preps will likely serve you in most of these scenarios. It might be worth considering how to get deep, deep, deep under the earth's surface for this one, however!
- Short Term Events That WILL OCCUR:
FIRE
FLOOD
TORNADO
EARTHQUAKE
HURRICANE
TSUNAMI
VOLCANO ERUPTION
SMALL SCALE EPIDEMIC
All of the above scenarios have happened, do happen, and will happen again and again and again. Many of these things have been occurring with more frequency and much greater severity. You don't have to be sitting at home waiting for doomsday to find use for your preparations. I don't know how many times we've been in the basement, waiting out a tornado warning, and what we have has brought me solace. I've burned the candles in blackouts and made dinner from our reserves when times were hard. Preparing means you'll be ready if you lose your job, your community, or your society - from the smallest level impacts to some of the largest level collapse scenarios. I've seen my neighbors emerge from their basements to the broken glass and shattered timbers of a tornado ravaged home, no shoes, no water, no clean clothes. There's enough trauma in a disaster like that already without adding sliced feet, dirty clothes, and thirst to the mix. We all pay to insure our homes, our lives, our cars, our health - to me, this is just a more practical extension of the same.
Let me know what you think! All the best!
A NOTE ON GLOBAL WARMING: I am a believer in science. I've seen a flood that wasn't supposed to happen in my own hometown. I've seen homes that were never included in any flood plane maps, underwater during that once in a millennial flood. My bosses were almost killed, hanging on to life on their parents' rooftop as an epically swollen river raged through the streets and swept the trees and houses around them away. I've seen my friends' homes destroyed by a long-track, EF4 wedge tornado during a meteorological mind-bending deratio. The climate is changing and fast! I have to say this, I don't just prepare for myself, I also prepare for my children. If society manages to hang on another 50 years despite what's coming for us in the form of global climate disaster (I'm highly doubtful that it will) I can guarantee it WILL NOT STAND FOR THE NEXT GENERATION! (Not yelling, just for emphasis) I can also guarantee that climate disaster will trigger almost all of the possible scenarios I've listed above, less those unlikely events stemming from space. If I'm not alive when it all comes crumbling down, I know my children will be. I'm determined that they know how to provide for themselves. I'm determined that they have food to eat after the last grocery store closes the doors on its darkened, empty shelves. I'm determined that they have water and shelter and hope for a future no matter what. So, even if I only ever grab a candle during the next thunderstorm or matches when I can't find my lighter or some pasta for spaghetti when I need to go grocery shopping. Even if that's all the use I ever get from my preparations, it will still have been worth it to ensure that, once I'm gone, my children will have what they need no matter what. They'll know what to do to survive the hardest of times. My first job as their mom is to teach them how to succeed in life and being able to sustain oneself is the first requirement in ensuring that success. That's why this matters so much!
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